CryptoQuant CEO: Bitcoin Cycle Pattern May Have Ended, Current Price Weakness Due to Lack of Demand
BlockBeats News, November 3rd, CryptoQuant CEO Ki Young Ju shared a series of on-chain data about Bitcoin and expressed the following key analysis:
1. Whales' unrealized gains are not extremely high. This may indicate one of the following two situations: "The hype has not arrived yet - we are far from the euphoric sentiment." or "This time is different - the market is too big to sustain a high profit margin."
2. Bitcoin's hash rate continues to hit new highs (with about 5.96 million ASIC miners online). Listed mining companies are expanding rather than scaling down, which is a clear long-term bullish signal.
3. The current demand is mainly driven by ETFs and MicroStrategy, but the buying pressure from these two major channels has recently slowed down. If these two channels resume growth, market momentum may resurface.
4. In the past 6 months, short-term whales (mainly ETFs) are close to breakeven. Long-term whales have gained about 53%. Historically, the market has shown clear four-year cyclical fluctuations, with retail investors and whale investors accumulating and distributing. It is now more difficult to predict where and to what extent new liquidity will flow in, making it unlikely for Bitcoin to follow the same cyclical pattern again.
5. The average cost of a Bitcoin wallet is $55,900, implying an average profit of about 93% for holders. Realized market value continues to rise (increased by $8 billion this week), indicating that on-chain fund inflows remain strong. The price increase is not due to selling pressure but rather due to weak demand.
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